diff --git a/gateway/kanban_watchers.py b/gateway/kanban_watchers.py
index 2563091f4fc4..14d2e43a6644 100644
--- a/gateway/kanban_watchers.py
+++ b/gateway/kanban_watchers.py
@@ -236,6 +236,26 @@ class GatewayKanbanWatchersMixin:
                             )
                             continue
                         seen_db_paths.add(resolved_db_path)
+                        # Zero-subscription early exit: probe the board with a
+                        # cheap read-only connection BEFORE the writable
+                        # `connect()`. A board with no subscriptions has
+                        # nothing to notify, and the writable open (schema
+                        # init/migration on first open, WAL/-shm sidecars,
+                        # checkpoint traffic) is exactly the per-tick cost
+                        # this skip avoids.
+                        try:
+                            if _kb.count_notify_subs(board=slug) == 0:
+                                logger.debug(
+                                    "kanban notifier: board %s has no subscriptions; skipping open",
+                                    slug,
+                                )
+                                continue
+                        except Exception as exc:
+                            logger.debug(
+                                "kanban notifier: read-only subscription probe failed "
+                                "for board %s (%s); falling back to writable open",
+                                slug, exc,
+                            )
                         try:
                             conn = _kb.connect(board=slug)
                         except Exception as exc:
diff --git a/hermes_cli/kanban_db.py b/hermes_cli/kanban_db.py
index 3877a7f10b42..bd3c428cf002 100644
--- a/hermes_cli/kanban_db.py
+++ b/hermes_cli/kanban_db.py
@@ -9511,6 +9511,44 @@ def list_notify_subs(
     return out
 
 
+def count_notify_subs(
+    db_path: Optional[Path] = None,
+    *,
+    board: Optional[str] = None,
+) -> int:
+    """Count ``kanban_notify_subs`` rows via a read-only connection.
+
+    Cheap probe for the gateway notifier's zero-subscription early exit:
+    unlike :func:`connect`, this never creates the DB file, never runs
+    schema init/migration, and never opens the database writable (no
+    write locks, no checkpoints — though a read-only open of a WAL
+    database may still create the ``-shm``/``-wal`` sidecars, it cannot
+    write table content). Rows in a not-yet-checkpointed WAL are
+    visible, so a freshly added subscription is never missed. A missing
+    DB, or a legacy DB that predates the subscriptions table, counts as
+    zero. Path resolution matches :func:`connect` (explicit ``db_path``,
+    else ``board`` via :func:`kanban_db_path`). Raises
+    :class:`sqlite3.Error` when the DB exists but cannot be read
+    (locked, corrupt); callers choose their own fallback.
+    """
+    path = db_path if db_path is not None else kanban_db_path(board=board)
+    if not path.exists():
+        return 0
+    conn = sqlite3.connect(path.resolve().as_uri() + "?mode=ro", uri=True)
+    try:
+        try:
+            row = conn.execute(
+                "SELECT COUNT(*) FROM kanban_notify_subs"
+            ).fetchone()
+        except sqlite3.OperationalError as exc:
+            if "no such table" in str(exc).lower():
+                return 0
+            raise
+        return int(row[0]) if row else 0
+    finally:
+        conn.close()
+
+
 def remove_notify_sub(
     conn: sqlite3.Connection,
     *,
diff --git a/tests/gateway/test_kanban_notifier_zero_sub_gate.py b/tests/gateway/test_kanban_notifier_zero_sub_gate.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..d8e64f2de96e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/gateway/test_kanban_notifier_zero_sub_gate.py
@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
+"""Tests for the kanban notifier zero-subscription early exit.
+
+The notifier used to writable-open EVERY board DB on every tick even when a
+board had zero subscriptions — paying schema init/migration on first open,
+WAL/-shm sidecar creation, and checkpoint traffic for boards with nothing to
+notify. Per-board work is now gated by a read-only subscription probe
+(``kanban_db.count_notify_subs``), so boards with zero subscriptions are
+never opened writable.
+
+(The companion machine-global ``.notifier.lock`` singleton gate from PR
+#63001 was deliberately NOT salvaged: a lock-winning default-profile gateway
+cannot deliver a secondary profile's subscriptions in standalone-profile
+deployments — profile routing fails closed in
+``gateway/authz_mixin.py::_authorization_adapter`` — so the lock could
+suppress delivery entirely. The read-only probe captures the per-tick cost
+win without that risk.)
+"""
+
+import asyncio
+
+from unittest.mock import patch
+
+from gateway.config import Platform
+from gateway.run import GatewayRunner
+from hermes_cli import kanban_db as kb
+
+
+class RecordingAdapter:
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.sent = []
+
+    async def send(self, chat_id, text, metadata=None):
+        self.sent.append({"chat_id": chat_id, "text": text, "metadata": metadata or {}})
+
+
+def _make_runner(adapter):
+    runner = GatewayRunner.__new__(GatewayRunner)
+    runner._running = True
+    runner.adapters = {Platform.TELEGRAM: adapter}
+    runner._kanban_sub_fail_counts = {}
+    return runner
+
+
+async def _run_one_notifier_tick(monkeypatch, runner):
+    real_sleep = asyncio.sleep
+
+    async def fake_sleep(delay):
+        if delay == 5:
+            return None
+        runner._running = False
+        await real_sleep(0)
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(asyncio, "sleep", fake_sleep)
+    await runner._kanban_notifier_watcher(interval=1)
+
+
+def _create_completed_task(*, subscribe: bool) -> str:
+    conn = kb.connect()
+    try:
+        tid = kb.create_task(conn, title="owner gate", assignee="worker")
+        if subscribe:
+            kb.add_notify_sub(conn, task_id=tid, platform="telegram", chat_id="chat-1")
+        kb.complete_task(conn, tid, summary="done")
+        return tid
+    finally:
+        conn.close()
+
+
+def test_zero_sub_board_is_never_opened_writable(tmp_path, monkeypatch):
+    """A board with zero subscriptions must be skipped BEFORE `_kb.connect`."""
+    db_path = tmp_path / "zero-subs.db"
+    monkeypatch.setenv("HERMES_KANBAN_DB", str(db_path))
+    kb.init_db()
+    _create_completed_task(subscribe=False)
+
+    adapter = RecordingAdapter()
+    runner = _make_runner(adapter)
+
+    with patch.object(kb, "connect", wraps=kb.connect) as spy_connect:
+        asyncio.run(_run_one_notifier_tick(monkeypatch, runner))
+
+    spy_connect.assert_not_called()
+    assert adapter.sent == []
+
+
+def test_subscribed_board_still_delivers_through_the_gate(tmp_path, monkeypatch):
+    """Regression: the zero-sub probe must not change delivery for live subs."""
+    db_path = tmp_path / "subscribed.db"
+    monkeypatch.setenv("HERMES_KANBAN_DB", str(db_path))
+    kb.init_db()
+    tid = _create_completed_task(subscribe=True)
+
+    adapter = RecordingAdapter()
+    runner = _make_runner(adapter)
+    asyncio.run(_run_one_notifier_tick(monkeypatch, runner))
+
+    assert len(adapter.sent) == 1
+    assert tid in adapter.sent[0]["text"]
+
+
+def test_probe_failure_falls_back_to_writable_open(tmp_path, monkeypatch):
+    """If the read-only probe raises (locked/corrupt DB), the notifier must
+    fall back to the writable open — a broken probe must never silently
+    disable notifications for a board with live subscriptions."""
+    db_path = tmp_path / "probe-broken.db"
+    monkeypatch.setenv("HERMES_KANBAN_DB", str(db_path))
+    kb.init_db()
+    tid = _create_completed_task(subscribe=True)
+
+    def _boom(*args, **kwargs):
+        raise RuntimeError("probe exploded")
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(kb, "count_notify_subs", _boom)
+
+    adapter = RecordingAdapter()
+    runner = _make_runner(adapter)
+    asyncio.run(_run_one_notifier_tick(monkeypatch, runner))
+
+    assert len(adapter.sent) == 1
+    assert tid in adapter.sent[0]["text"]
diff --git a/tests/hermes_cli/test_kanban_count_notify_subs.py b/tests/hermes_cli/test_kanban_count_notify_subs.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..f1361e29c5ee
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/hermes_cli/test_kanban_count_notify_subs.py
@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+"""Tests for ``kanban_db.count_notify_subs`` — the read-only subscription probe.
+
+The gateway notifier uses it to skip boards with zero subscriptions BEFORE
+any writable ``connect()``: the probe must never create the DB file, never
+run schema init/migration, and never write — that first-open cost on every
+tick is exactly what the zero-sub early exit avoids. It must also never
+UNDER-count: rows sitting in a not-yet-checkpointed WAL still count, or the
+notifier would skip a board that has a live subscription.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import sqlite3
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pytest
+
+from hermes_cli import kanban_db as kb
+
+
+@pytest.fixture
+def kanban_home(tmp_path, monkeypatch):
+    home = tmp_path / ".hermes"
+    home.mkdir()
+    monkeypatch.setenv("HERMES_HOME", str(home))
+    monkeypatch.setenv("HERMES_KANBAN_HOME", str(home))
+    monkeypatch.setattr(Path, "home", lambda: tmp_path)
+    return home
+
+
+def test_missing_db_counts_zero_and_creates_nothing(kanban_home):
+    db_path = kb.kanban_db_path(board="default")
+    assert not db_path.exists()
+    assert kb.count_notify_subs(board="default") == 0
+    assert not db_path.exists(), "read-only probe must not create the DB"
+
+
+def test_counts_rows_via_board_resolution(kanban_home):
+    conn = kb.connect(board="default")
+    try:
+        tid = kb.create_task(conn, title="t", assignee="w")
+        kb.add_notify_sub(conn, task_id=tid, platform="telegram", chat_id="c1")
+        kb.add_notify_sub(conn, task_id=tid, platform="telegram", chat_id="c2")
+    finally:
+        conn.close()
+    assert kb.count_notify_subs(board="default") == 2
+
+
+def test_probe_is_read_only_and_sees_uncheckpointed_wal_rows(kanban_home):
+    """A sub committed by a still-open writer (rows only in the WAL, not yet
+    checkpointed into the main DB file) must be counted — under-counting
+    would make the notifier skip a board that has a live subscription. And
+    the probe itself must be read-only: the writer's connection stays the
+    only writer."""
+    conn = kb.connect(board="default")
+    try:
+        tid = kb.create_task(conn, title="t", assignee="w")
+        kb.add_notify_sub(conn, task_id=tid, platform="telegram", chat_id="c1")
+        # Writer still open: the row lives in the -wal, not the main file.
+        assert kb.count_notify_subs(board="default") == 1
+    finally:
+        conn.close()
+
+
+def test_legacy_db_without_subs_table_counts_zero_and_stays_unmigrated(tmp_path):
+    legacy = tmp_path / "legacy.db"
+    conn = sqlite3.connect(legacy)
+    try:
+        conn.execute("CREATE TABLE something_else (id INTEGER)")
+        conn.commit()
+    finally:
+        conn.close()
+    assert kb.count_notify_subs(db_path=legacy) == 0
+    # The probe must not have run schema init on the foreign/legacy DB.
+    conn = sqlite3.connect(legacy)
+    try:
+        tables = {
+            r[0] for r in conn.execute(
+                "SELECT name FROM sqlite_master WHERE type='table'"
+            )
+        }
+    finally:
+        conn.close()
+    assert "kanban_notify_subs" not in tables, (
+        "read-only probe must never create schema"
+    )
+
+
+def test_explicit_db_path_overrides_board(kanban_home, tmp_path):
+    pinned = tmp_path / "pinned.db"
+    conn = kb.connect(db_path=pinned)
+    try:
+        tid = kb.create_task(conn, title="t", assignee="w")
+        kb.add_notify_sub(conn, task_id=tid, platform="telegram", chat_id="c1")
+    finally:
+        conn.close()
+    assert kb.count_notify_subs(pinned) == 1
+    assert kb.count_notify_subs(board="default") == 0